Template to Victory: Fabricio Werdum vs. Cain Velasquez

Werdum battering Velasquez at UFC 188

UFC 188 is officially over and we have a new undisputed UFC Heavyweight champion in Fabricio Werdum. To me there were 3 things each fighter did (or didn't do) that led to the result.

Werdum

1. Relentless assertion of the plum: The thai plum clinch is definitely Werdum's comfort zone on the feet. He's been working it into his game for years now and has only gotten better at it during this current run in the UFC. Prior to the fight, I didn't think he would be able to assert the plum because I felt Cain was too bull necked and had good level changes. I was right until Werdum's determination made me wrong. Throughout the first round, Werdum couldn't get control of the head every time he tried for the plum clinch. In the second, he kept going after it and secured it on a few key occasions that either led to a knee or to a stiff jab when Cain snapped back out of it. This pattern continued in the third and led to some pivotal shots that wobbled Cain and sapped his juices.
2. The jab: Werdum kept his jab in Cain's face the whole fight. Every time they disengaged, Werdum made sure to touch Cain's face with his jab before he could get into his usual head movement pattern. Cain's couldn't string together his combinations because the jab was touching him before he could get space to reset. The jab also allowed Fabricio to set up the right combinations at the appropriate range, maximizing his reach advantage.
3. Controlling the arms: In the first round, Cain used his usual bullying style to press Fabricio against the cage, but Werdum constantly worked to establish control at the bicep and shoulder and worked to take away Cain's clinch. When Cain got double underhooks, Werdum used his control of the bicep (with his hands) and shoulder (with his elbows) to create space and snatch the plum. When Cain reacted, Werdum pummeled in. During their brief ground exchanges, Fabricio used his control of the bicep to roll through to a turtle from side control and then at another point used wrist control to stand back up. He definitely miscalculated a few times against the cage and ate some heavy shots for it, but overall he timed his control well.

Velasquez

1. Forgetting about the body: Cain's generally a headhunter, but in the Dos Santos fights, he used body shots to keep his opponent honest and accumulate damage. In this fight, neither fighter went to the body much, if at all. A guy with a height and reach disadvantage like Cain had here should have been looking to roll under that jab and punish the body, but it seemed Cain just decided to headhunt this time around. Werdum's timing with the jab was a big contributing factor, but at no point did attacking the body seem to be part of Cain's strategy.
2. Disorganized kicking: Cain landed a lot of kicks on Werdum's legs, but they all seemed like kicks of opportunity rather than set-ups for combinations or finishers themselves. Werdum came forward or cut off his angle and Cain kicked to punish, but didn't really seem to have a second or third option off the kick. I put this down to Werdum not allowing himself to be walked down and trading in the pocket, but typically Cain uses kicks very well to set up his punches or clinch work. This time, they were just flicked out there.
3. Hands down, chin up: If there's ever been a weakness to Cain's striking, it's his willingness to fight with his hands close to his waist and his chin jutting out. While he seemed to use this as a ploy to lure Junior Dos Santos in off the jab, he couldn't get a rhythm going against Werdum, so this technical choice failed him. If he was trying to draw the jab, he was successful, but unfortunately, he couldn't move under it in time, owing largely to his quickly depleted gas tank, but moreso to Fabricio's timing the jab very well. Realistically, even more than the jab, this posture allowed Werdum to snatch the stretch plum and reel him in and then make him fight an exhausting fight to punch or roll his way out.

While Werdum got a definitive victory, I think Cain could potentially make the adjustments to win. The thing to remember about Velasquez is that he's only had 15 fights in his career. In this era of fast tracked champions, that seems less relevant, but it matters. He's a young dude with a lot of talent, great work ethic and he seems to be a sponge for learning. American Kickboxing Academy has shown difficulty with getting their guy through when he's the nail instead of the hammer, so I'll be interested to see if they can adapt his game. Werdum is such a scrappy fighter. His own ability to adapt is what's kept him in the game so long. I hope we get to see both of these excellent fighters in a few more great wars.